The perception of Tammy Abraham is a striker who misses a lot of chances but scores a few. The perception of Timo Werner – at least the perception a year ago – was a deadly finisher.
The evidence of plenty of games this season – plus the evidence of the stats from those games – shows that’s quite far from the truth.
According to FBRef, per 90 minutes and excluding penalties, Werner has 0.44 goals or assists per game. That’s not bad – one “goal contribution” every other game. Tammy’s is way better though, topping the team by some distance at 0.62.
But now look at their “expected” column – how many they should have had given their chances. They both have a final score of 0.57 – meaning that Tammy is scoring and assisting more than one would expect from his chances, and Werner significantly less.
Timo has still been a very useful part of this team, and it’s no knock on him – but it’s another piece of evidence in the “Tammy is good” case file.
